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    中国地区集合预报产品自适应递减平均偏差订正法的改进研究

    Improvement of a self-adaption decaying average bias correction method based on ensemble forecast

    • 摘要: 基于中国地区T213集合预报产品2 m温度预报数据,采用卡尔曼滤波类型的自适应递减平均法进行偏差订正处理,原方案在剧烈降温天气订正效果表现不理想。通过对递减平均参数w的重新构建得到改进的订正方案wip)(i为站点信息,p为天气过程信息),在此基础上进一步优化对历史信息的有效提取,得到改进的方案wip)相似法和wip)统计法,并进行效果检验。结果表明:改进为包含空间和天气过程信息的函数wip)后方案的订正效果得到不同程度的提高,其中24 h剧烈降温预报各成员预报均方根误差平均减小了0.15 ℃;而进一步改进的wip)统计法在当前几种剧烈降温预报中订正效果最优,其集合平均偏差与wip)方案相比减小2.54 ℃。

       

      Abstract: Bias correction for the 2 m air temperature from the T213 ensemble forecast product performed not good on dramatically cooling days using the original self-adaption Kalman Filter-typed decaying average bias correction method.In this study,the bias correction scheme w(i,p) is improved by redefining the decaying average weight w,with i representing station information and p representing synoptic process information,and the similarity w(i,p) method and the statistical w(i,p) method are further developed through optimizing effective extraction of historical information.The new improved bias correction methods have been evaluated.The result showed that the improved w(i,p) decaying average bias correction method has a better performance than the original method.The averaged root-mean-square (RMS) error of the 24-h forecast decreases by 0.15 ℃ for each member on dramatically cooling days.The statistical w(i,p) method has the best performance,with the averaged ensemble mean bias decreases by 2.54 ℃ compared with the w(i,p) decaying average bias correction method.

       

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